A Trade-off Analysis of Ecosystem Services and Dynamic BNs in the Dutch Wadden Sea, the Netherlands
Sonja Wanke, Alex Ziemba, Ghada el Serafy (Deltares)
Evaluating interactive effects of global factors with local pressures is one of the major challenges for future management of the Wadden Sea. Global pressures like sea level and temperature rise, and invasive species act on a large scale. For future management strategies it is vital to understand effects of global drivers and their influences on a regional level (van Beusekom, J. E., Buschmann, C. & Reise 2012). In combination with local anthropogenic activities, global pressures can have significant effects on the ecosystem. When modelling the marine environment and its ecosystem services, it is therefore vital to include global and regional pressures such as climate change (global pressures) and eutrophication, fisheries and pollution (regional pressures) that may frequently occur as non-linear interactions (Petersen et al. 2017). The following research was divided into two separate studies to limit its complexity. The first part dealt with a trade-off analysis between two different ecosystem services developing a rather large Bayesian Network. Whereas the second part developed a much smaller Dynamic Bayesian Network showing cumulative and cascading effect on the ecosystem and its services in the Dutch Wadden Sea.
For details on the case study, see Section 6.5 in ECOPOTENTIAL Deliverable 7.3